What Happened in the Markets Last Week
Iran Peace Deal Sparks Monday Market Rally
President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran over the weekend, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sending the Nasdaq up over 3% on Monday. The deal was the week’s single biggest market catalyst, driving oil prices sharply lower and lifting broad investor sentiment.
Fed Decision Sends Stocks Tumbling Wednesday
The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday afternoon policy announcement caught markets off guard, wiping out early gains and sending the Dow down 507 points by the close. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.21% and 1.34% respectively as traders reassessed their rate expectations.
Nasdaq Leads Weekly Gains at 2.43%
Despite mid-week volatility, the Nasdaq finished the shortened four-day week up 2.43%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.93% gain and the Russell 2000’s 1.21% advance. U.S. markets were closed Friday in observance of Juneteenth.
Chip Stocks Whipsaw as Energy Sector Drops
Semiconductor stocks had a turbulent week, with AMD falling over 7%, Micron shedding 6%, and Broadcom dropping 4% on Tuesday before the group rebounded sharply Thursday. Energy stocks bore the brunt of the Iran deal optimism, with the sector losing 3.58% on Tuesday alone as oil prices fell.
Dow Hits Fresh All-Time High at 52,190
The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched an intraday record of 52,190.29 on Tuesday before pulling back to close at 51,999.67. The record came even as broader indexes slipped, with real estate, healthcare, and consumer staples all finishing Tuesday in the red.
S&P 500 Weekly Outlook
The S&P 500 enters the week in a technically strong posture — every major moving average bullish, +2.92% on the prior week, and only 1.6% from an all-time high — but RSI divergence and a layered resistance band from 7,500 to 7,625 mean the index has work to do before claiming new ground. Thursday’s PCE print is the week’s binary event: soft data clears the runway for an ATH test, hot data sends traders to the 7,334 support and forces a recalibration on rates. The 10-year yield at 4.46% is a level worth monitoring all week — if it holds below 4.50%, bulls retain the edge; if it breaks above on rising inflation expectations, the technical picture deteriorates fast. This is a week to watch levels closely rather than assume momentum carries straight through.
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Bull Case: What Could Drive the S&P 500 Higher
🏦 Rate Curve Pricing Fed Hold
The 10-year yield at 4.46% and a 10-year/2-year spread of +27 bps suggest the market is pricing a cautious but stable Fed at the July meeting rather than fresh hikes. A hold environment historically gives equities room to extend, particularly if Thursday’s PCE comes in at or below expectations.
🚀 ATH Within Reach
At 7,500, the index sits roughly 1.6% below the June 2 intraday high of 7,620.90. A soft PCE print combined with stable PMI readings on Wednesday could provide enough momentum for the index to test that level before end of week.
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Bear Case: Risks That Could Weigh on the S&P 500
🔴 Resistance Stack at 7,500–7,620
The index is pressing into layered resistance: the 7,500–7,517 zone that previously acted as support, then 7,580–7,600, then the all-time high cluster at 7,620–7,625. Three overhead levels in a 120-point band means sellers have multiple chances to engage before bulls clear the range.
🔥 Hot PCE Could Reprice Rate Path
The 30-year yield at 4.90% and elevated term premium signal the bond market is already cautious about inflation persistence. A PCE reading above consensus on Thursday would validate those concerns and likely push the 10-year above 4.50%, adding a headwind for equity valuations at current multiples.
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Key Market Markers
📍 7,334 — Near-Term Line in the Sand
A break below 7,334 would materially damage the short-term technical picture and likely accelerate selling toward the 7,300 zone. Traders should watch how the index behaves on any intraday dip to this area — a reclaim same-session matters.
📅 Wednesday PMI Data
With 20 economic events scheduled Wednesday, the flash PMI readings are the primary focus ahead of PCE. Manufacturing PMI below 50 or a notable drop in services PMI would raise growth concerns; a beat on both keeps the bull case intact into Thursday.
📅 Thursday PCE Release
This is the week’s highest-stakes data point. Core PCE running below 2.6% year-over-year would likely fuel a push toward 7,600; a print above 2.8% re-opens the rate debate and tests the 7,334 support. The 10-year yield reaction in the hour after the release will tell you which scenario the bond market believes.
💵 10-Year Yield at 4.46%
Watch whether the 10-year holds below 4.50% through the week. A sustained break above that level on the back of hot inflation data would compress the equity risk premium and create a meaningful headwind for the S&P, particularly for growth-heavy segments of the index.
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Bottom Line
The S&P 500 enters the week in a technically strong posture — every major moving average bullish, +2.92% on the prior week, and only 1.6% from an all-time high — but RSI divergence and a layered resistance band from 7,500 to 7,625 mean the index has work to do before claiming new ground. Thursday’s PCE print is the week’s binary event: soft data clears the runway for an ATH test, hot data sends traders to the 7,334 support and forces a recalibration on rates. The 10-year yield at 4.46% is a level worth monitoring all week — if it holds below 4.50%, bulls retain the edge; if it breaks above on rising inflation expectations, the technical picture deteriorates fast. This is a week to watch levels closely rather than assume momentum carries straight through.
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