What Happened in the Markets Last Week
Dow Breaks 53,000 on AI Optimism
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 53,000 for the first time on Monday, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.1% and the S&P 500 gained 0.7%. Big Tech names including Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Tesla led the charge as investor confidence in AI spending returned after a late-June pullback.
Chip Stocks Slide Over 4% Tuesday
Semiconductor shares took a sharp hit mid-week, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF falling more than 3% and Micron dropping 4.7% as investors questioned whether AI infrastructure spending can justify current valuations. Broadcom, AMD, KLA, and Marvell Technology all posted losses, even as most other S&P 500 stocks rose, pointing to a clear rotation out of chipmakers.
Oil Surges 5% After Iran License Revoked
Brent crude jumped more than 5% to above $76 a barrel after a U.S. Treasury official confirmed the revocation of a license that had permitted Iranian oil sales. The move pushed energy prices sharply higher mid-week and contributed to rising bond yields, adding pressure to rate-sensitive growth stocks.
SpaceX Enters Nasdaq-100 After IPO
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7 following its IPO, automatically triggering buying from index-tracking funds. The addition marked a significant milestone for the private space and satellite company as it entered one of the most widely followed stock benchmarks in the world.
TeraWulf Jumps 16% on Anthropic Deal
Bitcoin miner and data center operator TeraWulf surged more than 16% in premarket trading after Anthropic signed a 20-year agreement to use its Kentucky data center facility. The deal highlighted growing demand for dedicated AI computing infrastructure as major technology companies compete to secure long-term data center capacity.
S&P 500 Weekly Outlook
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Bull Case: What Could Drive the S&P 500 Higher
📉 Yields Ease Further
The 10-year has fallen two consecutive sessions on lower oil prices and U.S.-Iran negotiation progress. If that geopolitical tailwind holds, continued yield compression toward 4.40% removes one of the cleaner arguments bears have against elevated equity valuations.
📅 July Seasonal Tailwind
The S&P 500 has risen every July since 2015, an 11-year streak. The index already sits 76 points above the June 30 close of 7,499.36, so the streak is alive heading into the week’s heaviest data flow. Traders who play seasonal patterns have a reason to lean long through month-end.
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Bear Case: Risks That Could Weigh on the S&P 500
🏛️ Warsh Testimony Risk
Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony as Fed Chair is an unknown quantity. Markets are already pricing at least one rate hike this year, and any hawkish language or pushback on rate cut expectations could send the 10-year back toward the May high of 4.67% and pressure equities across the board.
🔴 Hot CPI Stalls the Rally
A hotter-than-expected June CPI print on Tuesday would confirm that the May yield spike was not an anomaly and that the Fed has more work to do. That scenario puts the 7,514–7,497 support band in play quickly, with a deeper flush potentially testing 7,353 if sentiment turns sharply.
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Key Market Markers
🏆 7,620.90 — All-Time High
The 52-week high is 25 points above Friday’s close — close enough that a strong CPI reaction or a dovish Warsh comment could get the index there intraday. A confirmed breakout above 7,620.90 on volume would be a meaningful signal; a rejection there sharpens the RSI divergence story.
🟢 7,514–7,497 — First Support Band
Technical analysts identify support at 7,514 and 7,473 on any pullback from current levels. The June 30 close of 7,499.36 sits inside this zone, making it doubly important — a break below it would end the 11-year July streak and likely accelerate selling.
🟢 7,353 — Deeper Support
If the 7,497–7,514 band fails, the next technical floor sits at 7,353 — a 3% drop from Friday’s close. Getting there in a single week would require a genuine macro shock, but traders running stops should know where the next ledge is.
💵 10-Year Yield at 4.54%
The 10-year closed Friday at roughly 4.54%, down from 4.67% in May, and the yield curve is positively sloped with the 30-year at 5.06%. CPI and Warsh testimony are the two events most likely to move yields meaningfully — watch the 4.40% level on the downside and 4.67% on the upside as the week’s yield range.
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Bottom Line
The S&P 500 heads into the week in a technically strong position — strong-buy signals across every major moving average, a recovering trend, and a live seasonal tailwind — but the setup is not clean. Negative RSI divergence directly beneath the 7,600–7,620 resistance zone means the index needs a fundamental catalyst to break out, not just momentum. Tuesday delivers two of those potential catalysts back-to-back with June CPI at 8:30 AM and Fed Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony shortly after. A cool CPI and measured Warsh tone could push the S&P to new all-time highs by midweek; a hot print or hawkish surprise could send it back to the 7,497–7,514 support band before buyers step in. This is not a week to anticipate the breakout — let Tuesday’s tape confirm direction first.
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