What Happened in the Markets Last Week
S&P 500 Posts Slim Weekly Gain
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% for the week, closing Friday at 7,711.76, while the Nasdaq gained 0.9% and the Dow ended a three-week losing streak. Gains were narrow, with fewer than half of stocks advancing and only 3 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory.
Nvidia Earnings Spark Thursday Tech Rally
Nvidia’s blockbuster quarterly results drove a broad surge in technology stocks Thursday, with software names Okta, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike adding to the momentum. Tech was the only sector to finish the week in the green on that session.
Treasury Yields Slide on Buyback Report
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped more than 7 basis points to 4.625% on Tuesday after CNBC reported the Treasury Department may use its $1 trillion General Account to fund bond repurchases. Yields had already retreated Monday on the same report, giving bond markets two consecutive days of relief.
PCE Inflation Holds Steady Above Target
The PCE Price Index showed annual inflation unchanged at 3.7% in Wednesday’s release, beating the 3.6% forecast, while core PCE held at 3.3% in line with expectations. A separate GDP reading confirmed the economy grew at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2, slowing from Q1’s 2.1%.
Chip Stocks Drag Monday Before Bouncing Back
Micron Technology fell 5.8% Monday while AMD and Broadcom dropped more than 3% and 2% respectively, pulling the semiconductor ETF SOXX down 2.7% on the session. Semiconductor stocks recovered Tuesday as yields fell and risk appetite returned to the sector.
S&P 500 Weekly Outlook
The S&P 500 enters a holiday-shortened week in a technically neutral position — above meaningful support but still capped by resistance between 7,720 and 7,774. The week’s data sequence builds toward Friday’s jobs report, which arrives 11 days before the September 16 FOMC meeting and carries enough weight to move the index 1–2% in either direction. Bulls need to see the index clear 7,774 cleanly and hold it; bears need a break below 7,560 to make a credible case. Until one of those happens, 7,600–7,774 is the range to trade.
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Bull Case: What Could Drive the S&P 500 Higher
💼 Jobs Data Beats Estimates
A strong August Nonfarm Payrolls print on Friday could reinforce the soft-landing narrative and give equity buyers a clean catalyst into the weekend. Solid ADP Employment and low Initial Jobless Claims earlier in the week would prime that move.
🏭 PMI Expansion Confirms Growth
Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and Thursday’s ISM Services PMI together cover the broadest read on economic activity this week. Readings above 50 on both would push back on recession concerns and support the case for continued earnings growth.
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Bear Case: Risks That Could Weigh on the S&P 500
📉 Resistance Cluster at 7,720–7,774
The 1-hour chart shows stacked resistance at 7,720.18, 7,732.93, and 7,774.73 — three levels the index needs to clear before it can challenge the record. A rejection at any of those levels in a low-liquidity holiday-shortened week could trigger a fast reversal toward 7,560.
⚠️ Weak Jobs Print Re-Opens 7,300
A disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls number on Friday would cut against the soft-landing trade and could push the index back toward the 7,560 Gann convergence zone. A break below 7,560 opens the next logical support at 7,300, with 7,000 below that.
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Key Market Markers
🏛️ FOMC — September 16 Decision
This week’s data lands with the Fed’s next rate decision just 11 days away and a hike probability above 70% for December. Strong labor and services numbers could pull that timeline forward; weak prints could flip the conversation back toward cuts.
📊 ISM Services PMI — Thursday
Services account for roughly 70% of U.S. economic output, making Thursday’s ISM Services release the most consequential PMI of the week. A reading that surprises to the upside alongside the ADP report could be the trigger for a run at 7,774.
📋 JOLTs Job Openings — Wednesday
Wednesday’s JOLTs data gives the clearest read on labor demand ahead of Friday’s payrolls, and the Fed Beige Book the same day provides qualitative color on regional conditions. Together they should sharpen estimates for where the unemployment rate lands Friday.
🎯 7,816.70 Record High vs. 7,560 Support
The index is trading in a 256-point range between the all-time high at 7,816.70 and the Gann convergence zone near 7,560. A decisive close above 7,816.70 puts 8,000–8,075 in focus; a close below 7,560 shifts attention to 7,300 and then 7,000.
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Bottom Line
The S&P 500 enters a holiday-shortened week in a technically neutral position — above meaningful support but still capped by resistance between 7,720 and 7,774. The week’s data sequence builds toward Friday’s jobs report, which arrives 11 days before the September 16 FOMC meeting and carries enough weight to move the index 1–2% in either direction. Bulls need to see the index clear 7,774 cleanly and hold it; bears need a break below 7,560 to make a credible case. Until one of those happens, 7,600–7,774 is the range to trade.
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