What Happened in the Markets Last Week
S&P 500 Breaks 7,700 for First Time
The S&P 500 closed the week at a record 7,758, gaining 3.6% over five sessions after breaching 7,700 for the first time in history on Tuesday. The Nasdaq added 5.2% and the Dow climbed nearly 3%, marking the second consecutive week of broad gains.
Chip Stocks Power Nasdaq’s 5% Surge
Semiconductor shares led the week’s rally, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF finishing up more than 7%. The sector’s bounce drove a significant portion of the Nasdaq’s outperformance relative to the broader market.
Weak Jobs Data Shifts Rate Cut Bets
Employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs in July, a surprise miss that sent stocks higher and Treasury yields lower on Friday as traders reassessed the Fed’s path forward. Markets had been pricing in a September rate hike, but the soft report complicated that outlook.
Fed Holds Rates Amid Three Dissents
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75%, with three members pushing for an immediate quarter-point hike. Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled the committee stands ready to act quickly if inflation, currently at 3.5% annually, picks back up.
30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2007 High
The 30-year Treasury bond yield touched 5.244% during the week, its highest level since July 2007, before pulling back slightly to close around 5.201%. The 10-year note held near 4.68%, reflecting persistent investor uncertainty about the Fed’s next move.
S&P 500 Weekly Outlook
The S&P 500 enters the week of August 10–14 at 7,758, a fresh record close after Friday’s softer-than-expected jobs data pushed rate-hike expectations back and lifted equities 0.62%. The index is up 21.41% year-over-year and has cleared the prior resistance at 7,620, with technicals pointing toward 7,833 as the next meaningful level. This week, inflation data and Fed commentary will determine whether the breakout holds or fades.
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Bull Case: What Could Drive the S&P 500 Higher
📐 Clean Technical Breakout
The index broke decisively above 7,620 — its prior June record — confirming the rectangle formation breakout with a target projection toward 7,833. There is no technical resistance between current levels and 7,833, which gives momentum traders a clear runway.
📈 Strong Trend Structure
The S&P 500 remains in a rising medium-to-long-term trend channel with 21.41% year-over-year gains underpinning broad institutional participation. Near-term support at 7,570 is close enough that pullback risk appears contained absent a macro shock.
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Bear Case: Risks That Could Weigh on the S&P 500
📊 RSI Negative Divergence
Despite the price breakout to new highs, the RSI is diverging negatively against price — a classic warning sign that momentum is weakening beneath the surface. This divergence raises the probability of a short-term pullback toward 7,570 even within the broader uptrend.
💸 10-Year Yield at 4.65% and Sticky
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.65%, up 37 basis points year-over-year, and held near 4.68% through much of last week. Yields at this level compress equity multiples, and any upside surprise in inflation data this week could push yields back toward recent highs and weigh on growth stocks.
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Key Market Markers
🛡️ Support at 7,570
The nearest support level sits at 7,570, roughly 2.4% below Friday’s close. A move back to this level on weak inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary would be a normal technical retest of the breakout zone rather than a structural breakdown.
🏦 10-Year Treasury Yield
Watch 4.65%–4.70% as the near-term range on the 10-year. A break above 4.75% this week — driven by hotter inflation data — would likely pressure the S&P, while a drop toward 4.50% on soft data would support the bull case.
📋 U.S. Inflation Data
CPI and PPI releases this week are the highest-impact scheduled events on the calendar. Fed officials have explicitly tied rate decisions to incoming inflation readings, so the prints will directly move market pricing on the September 25 basis point hike.
🌍 Global Data — Germany & UK
Economic releases from Germany and the United Kingdom are on the calendar this week and could move global risk sentiment, particularly in early trading sessions. Weakness in European data would reinforce the relative strength trade in U.S. equities; strength could lift global yields and add pressure.
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Bottom Line
The S&P 500 enters the week in a technically strong position — a confirmed breakout above 7,620, a record close at 7,758, and a clear path to 7,833 with no intervening resistance. The primary threat is inflation data hot enough to cement a September rate hike and push the 10-year yield back above 4.70%, which would test the breakout and likely bring 7,570 into play. RSI divergence is worth watching as a warning sign, but divergences can persist for weeks before resolving. The week’s price action hinges almost entirely on CPI and PPI — traders holding positions into those releases are carrying event risk, not trend risk.
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