Crude oil futures moved higher on Friday as investors reacted to rising geopolitical tensions and renewed uncertainty from Washington. Markets are responding to developments around the White House legal strategy under the War Powers Resolution, as well as ongoing pressure from the naval blockade on Iran.
Despite a volatile trading week, crude oil prices remain under pressure from supply risks linked to Iran and concerns over the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why Are Crude Oil Futures Rising?
Crude oil futures are rising due to three key drivers:
- Escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions
- Continued naval blockade on Iran
- Legal uncertainty under the War Powers Resolution
These factors are increasing risk premiums across global oil markets and supporting higher crude oil prices.
War Powers Resolution: 60-Day Deadline Explained
The Trump administration is navigating a complex legal situation following military actions against Iran that began on February 28.
Under the War Powers Resolution, the president must withdraw forces within 60 days of notifying Congress unless lawmakers approve continued military action. The deadline is set for May 1.
To avoid seeking Congressional approval, the White House argues that hostilities have effectively ended.
Officials say a ceasefire reached three weeks ago has terminated active conflict, and there has been no direct fire between U.S. forces and Iran since April 7.
“For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated,” a senior official said, echoing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
This legal interpretation adds uncertainty to crude oil futures and broader market sentiment.
Oil Market Reaction: Brent and WTI Prices Move Higher
Oil markets reacted quickly to geopolitical developments:
- Brent crude (July contract): +1.11% to $111.63
- WTI crude (June contract): +0.45% to $105.54
Earlier in the week, Brent oil prices reached a four-year high of $126.41 before retreating.
This volatility highlights how sensitive crude oil futures are to geopolitical risk and supply expectations.
Iran Oil Blockade and Global Supply Impact
The United States continues to enforce a strict naval blockade on Iran, aiming to increase pressure until Tehran agrees to a new nuclear deal.
President Donald Trump has pledged to maintain the blockade, which has significantly reduced Iranian oil exports.
Exports have fallen from 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to just 567,000 bpd, tightening global oil supply and supporting higher crude oil prices.
Can Iran Sustain Oil Production Under Pressure?
Despite falling exports, analysts say Iran still has meaningful short-term resilience.
Data from Kpler and Rapidan Energy shows:
- Around 47 million barrels of onshore and floating storage
- Up to 76 days before production cuts become unavoidable
- Approximately 120 million barrels already stored east of the blockade zone
These buffers allow Iran to maintain output temporarily despite severe export restrictions.
Infrastructure Risk: Controlled Shutdown vs Disruption
Concerns over potential damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure have been raised, but experts suggest a controlled adjustment is more likely.
Antoine Halff notes that “orderly shutdowns” are possible. With sufficient storage capacity, Iran can reduce production gradually, limiting long-term structural damage.
Oil Price Outlook: Volatility Likely to Continue
The outlook for crude oil futures depends on how long geopolitical tensions persist and how both sides manage economic pressure.
Key risks include:
- Ongoing US-Iran tensions
- Continuation of the naval blockade
- Potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz
- Legal uncertainty under U.S. war powers legislation
The blockade is estimated to cost Iran around $500 million per day, while any escalation could further impact global oil prices.
For now, crude oil futures are expected to remain volatile as markets react to developments in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.